1 thought on “After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, why did the US dollar rise and fall?”
Florence
Number of this text: 2030 words Reading time: 10 minutes In the past 2017, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike believes that everyone has heard more or less. Many domestic economists, including central bank officials, believe that "the Fed's currency position has changed." is this correct? of course, but the problem is that it is not enough to see the direction, but the more important is "the degree must be clear." I have always believed that the Fed's implementation is by no means a "tightening monetary policy", but is to turn "extremely loose monetary policy" to "normal loose monetary policy." isn't it the process of "tightening" from "extreme loose" to "normal loosening"? Yes. Saying "yes" is because "extremely loose" to "normal loose" monetary policy has indeed changed a "direction" change; "no" is because of "extreme loose" to "normal loose" in monetary policy operation intensity. In terms of rhythm control, it is completely or different from "loose steering tightening". . For example, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. From the beginning of "saying to raise interest rates", it took 4 years, the federal benchmark interest rate has not increased by 1 percentage point. And every time I really raise interest rates, it seems very cautious, and I even need to take non -monetary means to press the US dollar index to low, and the stock market is fully digested. Why is it so cautious? This is the concrete manifestation of "extremely loose to normal and loose". In the first look at the Fed's five interest rate hikes first. Since 1980, the United States has gone through a total of 5 interest rate hike cycles: March 1983 -August 1984: The benchmark interest rate has been from 8.5 %To 11.5% March 1988 -May 1989: The benchmark interest rate is raised from 6.5%to 9.8125% February 1994 -February 1995: The benchmark interest rate is raised from 3%to 6% June 1999 -May 2000: The benchmark interest rate is raised from 5%to 6.5% June 2004 -July 2006: The benchmark interest rate is raised from 1%to 5.25% The Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike cycle, except for the first round of economic recovery, the opening of the remaining four interest rate hike cycles is at the trend of overheating and inflation. The current economic background is different from the past. The global economic growth is slow, and inflation has not showed signs of intensification. The sixth rate hike is the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in 2017. The economic background of this interest rate hike: First of all, the US economy has no momentum of overheating or strong growth. Despite the financial crisis, the US economy has recovered steadily. In the third quarter of 2015, the GDP growth rate was 2.1%, which was recovered from the second quarter. Although the US economy had returned to the level before the crisis, there was no acceleration rhythm. In addition, the performance of macro indicators such as the PMI index of the Economic Pioneer Manufacturing Industry is relatively weak. In October, the growth rate of manufacturing activities slowed to 50.1, which was almost close to the 50th glory dividing line for four consecutive months. Under such an economic recovery situation, the Fed's interest rate hike seems to be too early. Although the unemployment rate has continued to decline, the fundamental improvement of employment has not yet occurred. Since 2013, the U.S. unemployment rate has continued to decline, which is close to the level before the crisis. In November 2015, the non -agricultural employment population increased exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate also maintained stability at 5.0%. The employment status seemed to be happy, but the decline in the unemployment rate was at the expense of the continuous decline in labor participation rates. Before the decline in the unemployment rate, the unemployment rate The labor participation rate has already begun to decline, there is no backward all the way, and the fundamental improvement of the labor market still takes time. Iflation is sluggish, and it takes time to rise. The monthly rate of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.2%in October 2015 after two consecutive months. The core inflation rate remained at 1.9%. The situation before the start of the interest rate hike cycle is significantly lower than that. In the short period of short -term price, the low -level shock is still looking down in the short term, and it is still difficult to see significantly rising in the short term of the US core CPI in the short term. So, what impact does the Fed ’s interest rate hike have on China? Couns to lose the support of abundant flow funds The interest rate hikes will promote foreign capital out of China, which will cause many companies to have no abundant funding support, and many enterprises will fail. This will inevitably affect it. Once the employment of our ordinary people, once we are unemployed, we do not have more money to consume, which will lead to a vicious circle and greatly hurt the market demand, which will cause the economic environment to worsen. DD appreciation? fake! Blip according to the current market conditions, the appreciation of the US dollar is not stable. Many economists are predicting that interest rate hikes will lead to appreciation of the US dollar, which means that the US dollar is more valuable, and the corresponding RMB will depreciate. Then the price of overseas products that we import will increase, which means that it can be bought for more than 100 yuan before it can be bought before it can be bought. This is to indirectly increase the price of imported goods. It the cost of studying abroad, and the cost of studying is also rising, paying more RMB than before interest rate hikes in the US dollar. The US dollar hike will make everything in the world no longer cheap. Capital, oil, raw materials, and grain will become very expensive. Because the dollar is the world currency, the commodities are settled in the US dollar. In this way, the cost of our lives will also increase a lot. But I oppose this view. According to the current market conditions, the dollar is depreciating. Why do the US dollar not rising and anti -descending after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates? , although the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates, the US dollar still falls, mainly two reasons: . Two members of the voting are opposed to interest rate hikes! In the Federal Reserve data, the voting ratio: the voting results determined by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy are 7: 2, and Kashkari and Evans oppose interest rate hikes. "The trend of the decline in the US dollar is very interesting. The only pigeon factor in the meeting statement is that there are two different opinions." Erik Nelson, a strategist in the rich country, said, "The market may have only one." Is, the predictions of maintaining inflation in the statement are unchanged, which disappoints some investors who are more expected to be more eagle. In this statement, the Fed did not change the inflation expectations in 2018 and subsequent, reiterated that the inflation has been reduced this year, but it will still rise to the target level of 2%in the medium period. It is expected that inflation will still be low in the near future in the near future. In 2%. At the same time, the median core PCE expectations of 2017 and 2018 will remain unchanged at 1.5%and 1.9%. The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is a "moderate tightening" process of the global monetary system from a more macro perspective. For China: China still has certain advantages in the United States, but as an economy in developing countries, the spread of spreads with the United States is further narrowing, which has caused Chinese assets to a certain extent. Direct pressure of the outflow.
Number of this text: 2030 words
Reading time: 10 minutes
In the past 2017, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike believes that everyone has heard more or less. Many domestic economists, including central bank officials, believe that "the Fed's currency position has changed." is this correct?
of course, but the problem is that it is not enough to see the direction, but the more important is "the degree must be clear." I have always believed that the Fed's implementation is by no means a "tightening monetary policy", but is to turn "extremely loose monetary policy" to "normal loose monetary policy."
isn't it the process of "tightening" from "extreme loose" to "normal loosening"? Yes. Saying "yes" is because "extremely loose" to "normal loose" monetary policy has indeed changed a "direction" change; "no" is because of "extreme loose" to "normal loose" in monetary policy operation intensity. In terms of rhythm control, it is completely or different from "loose steering tightening".
. For example, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. From the beginning of "saying to raise interest rates", it took 4 years, the federal benchmark interest rate has not increased by 1 percentage point. And every time I really raise interest rates, it seems very cautious, and I even need to take non -monetary means to press the US dollar index to low, and the stock market is fully digested. Why is it so cautious? This is the concrete manifestation of "extremely loose to normal and loose".
In the first look at the Fed's five interest rate hikes first. Since 1980, the United States has gone through a total of 5 interest rate hike cycles:
March 1983 -August 1984: The benchmark interest rate has been from 8.5 %To 11.5%
March 1988 -May 1989: The benchmark interest rate is raised from 6.5%to 9.8125%
February 1994 -February 1995: The benchmark interest rate is raised from 3%to 6%
June 1999 -May 2000: The benchmark interest rate is raised from 5%to 6.5%
June 2004 -July 2006: The benchmark interest rate is raised from 1%to 5.25%
The Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike cycle, except for the first round of economic recovery, the opening of the remaining four interest rate hike cycles is at the trend of overheating and inflation. The current economic background is different from the past. The global economic growth is slow, and inflation has not showed signs of intensification.
The sixth rate hike is the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in 2017. The economic background of this interest rate hike:
First of all, the US economy has no momentum of overheating or strong growth. Despite the financial crisis, the US economy has recovered steadily. In the third quarter of 2015, the GDP growth rate was 2.1%, which was recovered from the second quarter. Although the US economy had returned to the level before the crisis, there was no acceleration rhythm. In addition, the performance of macro indicators such as the PMI index of the Economic Pioneer Manufacturing Industry is relatively weak. In October, the growth rate of manufacturing activities slowed to 50.1, which was almost close to the 50th glory dividing line for four consecutive months. Under such an economic recovery situation, the Fed's interest rate hike seems to be too early.
Although the unemployment rate has continued to decline, the fundamental improvement of employment has not yet occurred. Since 2013, the U.S. unemployment rate has continued to decline, which is close to the level before the crisis. In November 2015, the non -agricultural employment population increased exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate also maintained stability at 5.0%. The employment status seemed to be happy, but the decline in the unemployment rate was at the expense of the continuous decline in labor participation rates. Before the decline in the unemployment rate, the unemployment rate The labor participation rate has already begun to decline, there is no backward all the way, and the fundamental improvement of the labor market still takes time.
Iflation is sluggish, and it takes time to rise. The monthly rate of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.2%in October 2015 after two consecutive months. The core inflation rate remained at 1.9%. The situation before the start of the interest rate hike cycle is significantly lower than that. In the short period of short -term price, the low -level shock is still looking down in the short term, and it is still difficult to see significantly rising in the short term of the US core CPI in the short term.
So, what impact does the Fed ’s interest rate hike have on China?
Couns to lose the support of abundant flow funds
The interest rate hikes will promote foreign capital out of China, which will cause many companies to have no abundant funding support, and many enterprises will fail. This will inevitably affect it. Once the employment of our ordinary people, once we are unemployed, we do not have more money to consume, which will lead to a vicious circle and greatly hurt the market demand, which will cause the economic environment to worsen.
DD appreciation? fake!
Blip according to the current market conditions, the appreciation of the US dollar is not stable. Many economists are predicting that interest rate hikes will lead to appreciation of the US dollar, which means that the US dollar is more valuable, and the corresponding RMB will depreciate. Then the price of overseas products that we import will increase, which means that it can be bought for more than 100 yuan before it can be bought before it can be bought. This is to indirectly increase the price of imported goods.
It the cost of studying abroad, and the cost of studying is also rising, paying more RMB than before interest rate hikes in the US dollar. The US dollar hike will make everything in the world no longer cheap. Capital, oil, raw materials, and grain will become very expensive. Because the dollar is the world currency, the commodities are settled in the US dollar. In this way, the cost of our lives will also increase a lot.
But I oppose this view. According to the current market conditions, the dollar is depreciating.
Why do the US dollar not rising and anti -descending after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates?
, although the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates, the US dollar still falls, mainly two reasons:
. Two members of the voting are opposed to interest rate hikes!
In the Federal Reserve data, the voting ratio: the voting results determined by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy are 7: 2, and Kashkari and Evans oppose interest rate hikes.
"The trend of the decline in the US dollar is very interesting. The only pigeon factor in the meeting statement is that there are two different opinions." Erik Nelson, a strategist in the rich country, said, "The market may have only one."
Is, the predictions of maintaining inflation in the statement are unchanged, which disappoints some investors who are more expected to be more eagle.
In this statement, the Fed did not change the inflation expectations in 2018 and subsequent, reiterated that the inflation has been reduced this year, but it will still rise to the target level of 2%in the medium period. It is expected that inflation will still be low in the near future in the near future. In 2%. At the same time, the median core PCE expectations of 2017 and 2018 will remain unchanged at 1.5%and 1.9%.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is a "moderate tightening" process of the global monetary system from a more macro perspective.
For China: China still has certain advantages in the United States, but as an economy in developing countries, the spread of spreads with the United States is further narrowing, which has caused Chinese assets to a certain extent. Direct pressure of the outflow.